Daily Analysis of COVID-19 Data from Johns Hopkins University

An open source resource to support interpretation of COVID-19 case data.

Josef Kellndorfer, Ph.D., Earth Big Data, LLC; Richard Signell, Ph.D.

Click here to share this website.

CAUTION regarding the interpretation of Johns Hopkins COVID-19 data:

The daily data provided by Johns Hopkins tend to contain some errors, often fixed the next day. See Data Sources section for community feedback.

More and more studies estimate COVID-19 detection reported in daily data to be a small fraction (as low as 5 to 6 percent) of confirmed cases and fatalities. Thus, critical interpretation of the daily Johns Hopkins data is advised when assessing the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic. Please see the Suggested Reading/Watching section.

NOTE: You can hover over plots to see actual numbers. For more details see Interacting with the plots.

Latest news/updates

Content

Introduction: Population Normalization and Logarithmic Scaling
Interacting with the plots

Examples Linear and Logarithmic Scale

Confirmed Cases: USA
Confirmed Cases: Germany

Latest Data: Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country

Latest Top 12 Countries Total Cases and Deaths
Latest per Capita Confirmed Cases and Deaths

Daily Change Timelines for Confirmed Cases and Deaths

Daily: Countries
Timeline Daily Confirmed Cases
Timeline Daily Deaths
Daily: Selected U.S. States
Timeline U.S. Daily Confirmed Cases
Timeline U.S. Daily Deaths
Timeline U.S. Daily Cases/Deaths
Daily: Massachusetts Counties
Timeline MA Daily Confirmed Cases
Timeline MA Daily Deaths

Cumulative Totals Timelines

Cumulative: Countries
Confirmed Cases: Country Comparison
Deaths: Country Comparison
Cumulative: U.S. States
Confirmed Cases: U.S. States Comparison
Deaths: U.S States Comparison
Cumulative: Cape Cod and Islands
Cape Cod and Islands Confirmed Cases
Cape Cod and Islands Deaths

Case Fatality Rates for Countries

Latest Case Fatality Rate
Caste Fatality Rate Timeline

Cumulative Totals Timelines, Selected US and MA Counties

Selected U.S. Counties
Selected Counties: Confirmed Cases
Selected Counties: Deaths
Timeline: Massachusetts Counties
MA Counties: Confirmed Cases per Capita
MA Counties: Deaths per Capita

Suggested Reading/Watching
Data Sources

Introduction: Population Normalization and Logarithmic Scaling

back to top
These plots show the daily status of COVID-19 cases as reported by Johns Hopkins University. We want to caveat the data analysis and interpretation:

We chose to plot totals and numbers normalized by population (expressed as per 100,000). Also, it is advantageous to plot case totals (confirmed infections, deaths) in logarithmic scale where trends and parallels between countries become more obvious. Note, that a straight line trending upwards in logarithmic scale indicates exponential increase! Taking a close look at the plots, one will discern differences and similarities, and that for the most part initial stages are similar in all countries with a time lag. What to look out for is whether the measures taken by countries, foremost social distancing show the desired effects of slowing and eventually levelling out the exponential upwards trends. We produce plots for confirmed cases and deaths, which may be somewhat more reliable with respect to an impact for a country while tests are rolled out in larger numbers. We also plot mortality rates, 3-day change curves and doubling rates of confirmend cases and deaths.

This is work in progress, stay tuned.

You can get the notebook underlying this work at: https://github.com/EarthBigData/covid19

Interacting with the plots

back to top

Hover: See actual numbers when hovering over a plot.

Control buttons: Interact with the plots: Pan, Zoom in/out, Reset, Save.

Labels: In the legend, click on label to dim/highlight a specific country or state.

Confirmed Cases: Status for United States

back to top

Confirmed Cases: Status for Germany

back to top

Latest Top 12 Countries Total Confirmed Cases and Deaths

back to top

Latest Confirmed Cases and Deaths Per Capita: Country Comparison

back to top

Timeline: Daily Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country

back to top

The following graphs show the timelines of daily confirmed cases and deaths (gray dots). The solid lines show the rolling mean of the last seven days at the date plotted. The left column (red lines) shows totals. Note that the y-axis range is adaptive to the number of confirmed cases/deaths. The right column (blue lines) shows the confirmed cases/deaths per capita (per 100,000). The y-axis range is kept constant to enable comparison between countries.

Timeline Daily Confirmed Cases by Country

Timeline Daily Deaths by Country

back to top

Timeline: Daily Confirmed Cases and Deaths for selected U.S. States

back to top

The following graphs show the timelines of daily confirmed cases and deaths (gray dots). The solid lines show the rolling mean of the last seven days at the date plotted. The left column (red lines) shows totals. Note that the y-axis range is adaptive to the number of confirmed cases/deaths. The right column (blue lines) shows the confirmed cases/deaths per capita (per 100,000). The y-axis range is kept constant to enable comparison between counties.

Timeline: Daily Confirmed Cases for selected U.S. States

Timeline: Daily Deaths for selected U.S. States

back to top

Timeline: 7-Day average Cases/Deaths for selected U.S. States

back to top

Timeline: Daily Confirmed Cases and Deaths for Massachusetts Counties

back to top

The following graphs show the timelines of daily confirmed cases and deaths (gray dots). The solid lines show the rolling mean of the last seven days at the date plotted. The left column (red lines) shows totals. Note that the y-axis range is adaptive to the number of confirmed cases/deaths. The right column (blue lines) shows the confirmed cases/deaths per capita (per 100,000). The y-axis range is kept constant to enable comparison between counties.

Timeline Massachusetts Daily Confirmed Cases

Timeline Massachusetts Daily Deaths

back to top

Timeline Confirmed Cases: Country Comparison

back to top

CLICK on a label to highlight a line

Timeline Deaths: Country Comparison

back to top

CLICK on a label to highlight a line

Timeline Confirmed Cases: U.S. States

back to top

CLICK on a label to highlight a line

Timeline Deaths: U.S. States

back to top

CLICK on a label to highlight a line

Cape Cod and Islands

back to top

The plots below show the confirmed cases and deaths over time on Cape Cod and the Islands compared to the trends in Massachusetts and the U.S.. To compare, the plots show numbers normalized by population (based on U.S. Census population data for 2019). The plots are shown as normalized totals and in logarithmic scale.

Caveat for interpreting Barnstable County data:

Cape Cod and Islands Confirmed Cases

Cape Cod and Islands Deaths

back to top

Case Fatality Rates Country Comparison

back to top

The plot below shows the case fatality rate (CFR) in percent computed as:

$CFR=\frac{Deaths}{Infected} * 100$

A couple of caveats:

Latest Case Fatality Rates

back to top

Case Fatality Rate Timeline

back to top

CLICK on a label to highlight a line

Selected counties compared to state and country

back to top

Confirmed Cases

Deaths

back to top

Massachusetts by County

MA County Map Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Massachusetts-counties-map.gif

Confirmed Cases

back to top

Deaths

back to top

We hope these data are informative and convey how seriously we have to take the COVID-19 pandemic. Stay safe.

Suggested Reading/Watching:

back to top

(2020-04-30) Why the Coronavirus is so confusing

(2020-04-06) COVID-19: on average only 6% of actual SARS-CoV-2 infections detected worldwide

(2020-04-05) Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of Covid-19 but being left out of the official count

(2020-03-27) Watch Interview with Prof. Kim Woo-Ju, Korea University, College of Medicine

(2020-03-19) Coronavirus Interview with Larry Brilliant

(2007-04-08) Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus as an Agent of Emerging and Reemerging Infection (Concluding remarks of this paper: The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored.) GOT SCIENCE?

Data Sources

back to top

Johns Hopkins University daily updated COVID-19 data

COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths and recovered cases data are streamed from the The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. The CCSE COVID-19 GitHub Repo has more information about these data and their sources.

Community feedback on detected errors in the daily data can be accessed here.

UN Population Data

We obtain the Population data from UN statistics. UN Population Data Sets have more information about these data and their sources.

US Population Data

US population data ar obtained from US Census statistics. US Population Data Sets have more information about these data and their sources.